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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

However this year's race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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